SoCo MonitorConditions as of Thu, Nov 12, 2026 · 7:33 AM PT
Today's Weather
Thu, Nov 12, 2026 · 5:57 AM PT — Cody's morning report · Source: NWS Area Forecast Discussion
Hey there,
Warm and dry again today here in Sonoma County and along the Lower Russian River, with a cooler dip ahead of changing weather. Morning lows were in the mid to upper 40s inland, and highs today reach the lower to middle 60s in the inland valleys, with breezier afternoon winds gusting 25 to 35 mph along the coast and through favored gaps and passes. Prefrontal showers are possible along the coastal ranges tonight into Friday morning.
Rain returns Friday. The first of three systems moves into the North Bay Friday morning, with 0.5 to 1.2 inches expected for the North Bay — the highest totals in the region — before lingering showers into the night. A second system follows Sunday into Monday, and a third is possible mid next week. Early-season flooding risk stays minimal, but expect slick roads, and those 25 to 35 mph gusts could bring down branches and cause isolated outages. There's also a slight 15% chance of boom boom and flashy flashy in the Bay Area Friday as the front passes.
On the coast, this is serious: a Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for breaking waves 15 to 20 feet, sneaker waves and rip currents, then a High Surf Warning Friday night through early Sunday with surf 25 to 35 feet and sets up to 40-50 feet possible Saturday. Stay out of the water and never turn your back on the ocean. Coastal flooding from high tides continues through Friday, with wave runup flooding possible Saturday.
Bottom line: enjoy today, and get ready for a wet stretch starting Friday.
Weather Outlooks
Last checked Thu, Nov 12, 2026 · 7:33 AM PT · Last updated Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 12:01 PM PT
NOAA Climate Prediction Center 6–10 day outlooks · More outlooks at CPC
Precipitation Outlook
Chance of above- or below-normal precipitation over the next 6–10 days.
Temperature Outlook
Chance of above- or below-normal temperatures over the next 6–10 days.
Russian River · Guerneville
Last checked Thu, Nov 12, 2026 · 7:33 AM PT · Last updated Thu, Nov 12, 2026 · 6:00 AM PT
Well below flood stage — flood stage at Guerneville is 32 ft.
Flood categories at Guerneville: Action 29 ft · Minor flood 32 ft · Moderate 35 ft · Major 40 ft
Sources: NOAA NWPS (observations) · NOAA California-Nevada River Forecast Center (forecast) · Gauge GUEC1
Austin Creek · Cazadero
Last checked Thu, Nov 12, 2026 · 7:33 AM PT · Last updated Thu, Nov 12, 2026 · 6:00 AM PT
Well below flood stage — flood stage on Austin Creek is 21 ft.
Flood categories at Cazadero: Action 18.5 ft · Minor flood 21 ft · Moderate 27 ft · Major 32 ft
Sources: NOAA NWPS · USGS · Gauge AUSC1 (USGS 11467200) · Observation only — no forecast is issued for this creek
Critical NWS Alerts
Last checked Thu, Nov 12, 2026 · 7:33 AM PT · Last updated Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 10:53 PM PT
High Surf Warning issued November 11 at 10:48PM PST until November 15 at 4:00AM PST by NWS San Francisco CA
Fri, Nov 13 · 6:00 PM – Sun, Nov 15 · 4:00 AM PT
* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, An increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 15 to 20 ft expected. For the High Surf Warning, Dangerously large breaking waves of 25 to 35 ft, with occasional sets of 40 to 50 ft at favored breakpoints. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, large breaking waves will run up beaches and crash over seawalls, inundating adjacent, low-lying infrastructure.
* WHERE...Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore, San Francisco Peninsula Coast and Northern Monterey Bay.
* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, through Friday afternoon. For the High Surf Warning, from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from midnight Friday night to 6 PM PST Saturday.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
What: For the Beach Hazards Statement, An increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 15 to 20 ft expected. For the High Surf Warning, Dangerously large breaking waves of 25 to 35 ft, with occasional sets of 40 to 50 ft at favored breakpoints. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, large breaking waves will run up beaches and crash over seawalls, inundating adjacent, low-lying infrastructure.
Where: Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore, San Francisco Peninsula Coast and Northern Monterey Bay.
When: For the Beach Hazards Statement, through Friday afternoon. For the High Surf Warning, from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from midnight Friday night to 6 PM PST Saturday.
Impacts: High tides will result in flooding of low-lying infrastructure, isolated road closures, and coastal erosion. Rising tides will bring water and waves farther up the beach than normal, restricting escape from beaches and coastal areas. Dangerously large breaking waves can overpower swimmers, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks resulting in significant physical injury and increasing the risk of drowning. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks.
Additional Details: The Coastal Flood Advisory on Saturday is specifically for the Pacific Coast, where large breaking waves will spill over sea walls and run up beaches onto adjacent infrastructure.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure.
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.
Source: weather.gov
Beach Hazards Statement issued November 11 at 10:48PM PST until November 13 at 6:00PM PST by NWS San Francisco CA
Wed, Nov 11 · 10:48 PM – Fri, Nov 13 · 6:00 PM PT
* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, An increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 15 to 20 ft expected. For the High Surf Warning, Dangerously large breaking waves of 25 to 35 ft, with occasional sets of 40 to 50 ft at favored breakpoints. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, large breaking waves will run up beaches and crash over seawalls, inundating adjacent, low-lying infrastructure.
* WHERE...Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore, San Francisco Peninsula Coast and Northern Monterey Bay.
* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, through Friday afternoon. For the High Surf Warning, from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from midnight Friday night to 6 PM PST Saturday.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
What: For the Beach Hazards Statement, An increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 15 to 20 ft expected. For the High Surf Warning, Dangerously large breaking waves of 25 to 35 ft, with occasional sets of 40 to 50 ft at favored breakpoints. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, large breaking waves will run up beaches and crash over seawalls, inundating adjacent, low-lying infrastructure.
Where: Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore, San Francisco Peninsula Coast and Northern Monterey Bay.
When: For the Beach Hazards Statement, through Friday afternoon. For the High Surf Warning, from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from midnight Friday night to 6 PM PST Saturday.
Impacts: High tides will result in flooding of low-lying infrastructure, isolated road closures, and coastal erosion. Rising tides will bring water and waves farther up the beach than normal, restricting escape from beaches and coastal areas. Dangerously large breaking waves can overpower swimmers, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks resulting in significant physical injury and increasing the risk of drowning. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks.
Additional Details: The Coastal Flood Advisory on Saturday is specifically for the Pacific Coast, where large breaking waves will spill over sea walls and run up beaches onto adjacent infrastructure.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure.
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.
Source: weather.gov
Sources: National Weather Service alerts feed · Sonoma County
Other NWS Alerts
Last checked Thu, Nov 12, 2026 · 7:33 AM PT · Last updated Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 10:53 PM PT
Coastal Flood Advisory issued November 11 at 10:48PM PST until November 14 at 6:00PM PST by NWS San Francisco CA
Sat, Nov 14 · 12:00 AM – Sat, Nov 14 · 6:00 PM PT
* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, An increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 15 to 20 ft expected. For the High Surf Warning, Dangerously large breaking waves of 25 to 35 ft, with occasional sets of 40 to 50 ft at favored breakpoints. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, large breaking waves will run up beaches and crash over seawalls, inundating adjacent, low-lying…
What: For the Beach Hazards Statement, An increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 15 to 20 ft expected. For the High Surf Warning, Dangerously large breaking waves of 25 to 35 ft, with occasional sets of 40 to 50 ft at favored breakpoints. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, large breaking waves will run up beaches and crash over seawalls, inundating adjacent, low-lying infrastructure.
Where: Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore, San Francisco Peninsula Coast and Northern Monterey Bay.
When: For the Beach Hazards Statement, through Friday afternoon. For the High Surf Warning, from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from midnight Friday night to 6 PM PST Saturday.
Impacts: High tides will result in flooding of low-lying infrastructure, isolated road closures, and coastal erosion. Rising tides will bring water and waves farther up the beach than normal, restricting escape from beaches and coastal areas. Dangerously large breaking waves can overpower swimmers, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks resulting in significant physical injury and increasing the risk of drowning. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks.
Additional Details: The Coastal Flood Advisory on Saturday is specifically for the Pacific Coast, where large breaking waves will spill over sea walls and run up beaches onto adjacent infrastructure.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure.
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.
Source: weather.gov
Advisories, statements and other notices that don't meet the critical bar
Sources: National Weather Service alerts feed · Sonoma County
Roads & Hazards
Last checked Thu, Nov 12, 2026 · 7:33 AM PT · Last updated ---
West County & the Coastal Range · County reports and the Sonoma County road closure map
Seasonal: Vacation Beach Summer Crossing — closed for the season; returns next summer.
Fire Weather & PSPS
Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 7:59 AM PT — Fire Weather Outlook
North Ops calls it little to no risk for significant fire in SoCo, with no sustained offshore wind event detected. ERC sits at 26.62, below the 60th percentile (about the 46th), with the forecast falling sharply as a wet frontal system arrives Friday. PG&E lists no PSPS activity at any tier for Sonoma, Mendocino, Lake, Napa, or Marin through Nov 17.
Power Outages
Last checked Thu, Nov 12, 2026 · 7:33 AM PT · Last updated Thu, Nov 12, 2026 · 7:33 AM PT
⚡ Cotati — 126 customers out
Started Thu, Nov 12, 2026 · 6:29 AM PT · Estimated restore Thu, Nov 12, 2026 · 9:45 AM PT
Crew patrolling to find the cause · Status: Active
Sources: Cal OES power outage incidents (from PG&E's outage map) · Refreshed every 15 minutes · The map shows all of Sonoma County for reference — notifications cover West County only
Lake Sonoma
Last checked Thu, Nov 12, 2026 · 7:33 AM PT · Last updated Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 5:00 AM PT
Outflow from Warm Springs Dam, the main feeder to the lower Russian River
116 cfs
current outflow
Lake Sonoma storage — Sonoma Water supply graph · Last updated Mon, Nov 9, 2026 · 10:05 AM PT
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