SoCo MonitorConditions as of Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 10:20 AM PT
Today's Weather
Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 5:57 AM PT — Cody's morning report · Source: NWS Area Forecast Discussion
Hey folks!
Dry and slightly warmer weather is the story for Guerneville and the Lower Russian River through early next week. The air overhead is bone dry, high pressure is in control, and Friday stays dry with comfortable temperatures around Sonoma County and the North Bay. A little shallow fog and mist was noted near Santa Rosa this morning, but it is not a big factor for the day.
The weekend holds mostly steady. A weak trough moving into the Pacific Northwest on Sunday will cool us a couple degrees back to seasonal averages, but no rain is expected here.
Heads up at the coast — hazardous beach conditions continue through Monday. Long-period west to northwest swell will bring breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet at exposed beaches, with a higher risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Stay off jetties, piers, and rocks, stay out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean. High spring tides are also bringing coastal flooding concerns — a Coastal Flood Advisory runs until 4 PM Friday for some bayshore and coast areas, and again from Saturday morning through Tuesday noon for the North Bay coast including Sonoma County.
Looking ahead, the pattern changes mid to late next week. A deeper trough is expected to bring rain sometime around Wednesday through Thursday, but forecasters stress it is too early to pin down amounts — model spreads run from barely anything to over an inch.
Bottom line: enjoy a dry, mild stretch here at home, give the ocean extra respect this weekend, and keep an eye out next week as that rain window gets clearer.
Weather Outlooks
Last checked Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 10:20 AM PT · Last updated Thu, Nov 5, 2026 · 12:16 PM PT
NOAA Climate Prediction Center 6–10 day outlooks · More outlooks at CPC
Precipitation Outlook
Chance of above- or below-normal precipitation over the next 6–10 days.
Temperature Outlook
Chance of above- or below-normal temperatures over the next 6–10 days.
Russian River · Guerneville
Last checked Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 10:20 AM PT · Last updated Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 9:00 AM PT
Well below flood stage — flood stage at Guerneville is 32 ft.
Flood categories at Guerneville: Action 29 ft · Minor flood 32 ft · Moderate 35 ft · Major 40 ft
Sources: NOAA NWPS (observations) · NOAA California-Nevada River Forecast Center (forecast) · Gauge GUEC1
Austin Creek · Cazadero
Last checked Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 10:20 AM PT · Last updated Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 9:00 AM PT
Well below flood stage — flood stage on Austin Creek is 21 ft.
Flood categories at Cazadero: Action 18.5 ft · Minor flood 21 ft · Moderate 27 ft · Major 32 ft
Sources: NOAA NWPS · USGS · Gauge AUSC1 (USGS 11467200) · Observation only — no forecast is issued for this creek
Critical NWS Alerts
Last checked Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 10:20 AM PT · Last updated Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 10:13 AM PT
Beach Hazards Statement issued November 6 at 10:08AM PST until November 9 at 10:00PM PST by NWS San Francisco CA
Fri, Nov 6 · 10:08 AM – Mon, Nov 9 · 10:00 PM PT
* WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to 1.6 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the Beach Hazards Statement, an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 12 to 16 ft expected.
* WHERE...Pacific Coast.
* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 6 AM Saturday to noon PST Tuesday.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
What: For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to 1.6 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the Beach Hazards Statement, an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 12 to 16 ft expected.
Where: Pacific Coast.
When: For the Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 6 AM Saturday to noon PST Tuesday.
Impacts: Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks.
Additional Details: At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be: 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.
Source: weather.gov
Sources: National Weather Service alerts feed · Sonoma County
Other NWS Alerts
Last checked Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 10:20 AM PT · Last updated Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 10:13 AM PT
Coastal Flood Advisory issued November 6 at 10:08AM PST until November 13 at 4:00PM PST by NWS San Francisco CA
Fri, Nov 6 · 10:08 AM – Fri, Nov 13 · 4:00 PM PT
* WHAT...Up to 1.6 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
What: Up to 1.6 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
Where: Bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay and San Pablo Bay.
When: Until 4 PM PST Friday November 13.
Impacts: High tides will result in flooding of low-lying infrastructure, isolated road closures, and coastal erosion. Rising tides will bring water and waves farther up the beach than normal, restricting escape from beaches and coastal areas.
Additional Details: At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be: 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
Source: weather.gov
Advisories, statements and other notices that don't meet the critical bar
Sources: National Weather Service alerts feed · Sonoma County
Roads & Hazards
Last checked Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 10:20 AM PT · Last updated ---
West County & the Coastal Range · County reports and the Sonoma County road closure map
Seasonal: Vacation Beach Summer Crossing — closed for the season; returns next summer.
Fire Weather & PSPS
Thu, Nov 5, 2026 · 8:15 AM PT — Fire Weather Outlook
Risk is low for SoCo today: North Ops shows little to no risk for significant fires over the next 7 days, with no organized gusty-dry wind event — only localized northerly/easterly breezes today and the driest air of the week. PG&E lists no PSPS activity at any tier for Sonoma, Mendocino, Lake, Napa, or Marin through November 12. ERC for SoCo is 24.45, below the 60th percentile and forecast to ease down.
Power Outages
Last checked Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 10:20 AM PT · Last updated Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 10:20 AM PT
⚡ Santa Rosa — 86 customers out
Started Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 9:02 AM PT · Estimated restore Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 2:15 PM PT
Emerg Repairs · Status: Active
⚡ Santa Rosa — 73 customers out
Started Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 9:02 AM PT · Estimated restore Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 2:15 PM PT
Brkn Ug Equipmnt · Status: Active
⚡ Windsor — 42 customers out
Started Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 9:00 AM PT · Estimated restore Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 1:30 PM PT
Cause not yet known · Status: Active
⚡ Santa Rosa — 17 customers out
Started Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 9:01 AM PT · Estimated restore Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 12:30 PM PT
Planned shutdown · Status: Active
⚡ Santa Rosa — 8 customers out
Started Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 9:13 AM PT · Estimated restore Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 12:30 PM PT
Planned shutdown · Status: Active
⚡ Healdsburg — 3 customers out
Started Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 8:34 AM PT · Estimated restore Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 4:30 PM PT
Planned shutdown · Status: Active
⚡ Sonoma — 2 customers out
Started Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 9:01 AM PT · Estimated restore Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 1:00 PM PT
Planned shutdown · Status: Active
⚡ Santa Rosa — 1 customers out
Started Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 8:05 AM PT · Estimated restore Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 1:00 PM PT
Crew patrolling to find the cause · Status: Active
⚡ Occidental — 1 customers out
Started Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 8:34 AM PT · Estimated restore Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 1:30 PM PT
Cause not yet known · Status: Active
⚡ Santa Rosa — 1 customers out
Started Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 9:10 AM PT · Estimated restore Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 2:30 PM PT
Cause not yet known · Status: Active
⚡ Graton — 1 customers out
Started Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 9:29 AM PT · Estimated restore Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 12:45 PM PT
Crew patrolling to find the cause · Status: Active
Sources: Cal OES power outage incidents (from PG&E's outage map) · Refreshed every 15 minutes · The map shows all of Sonoma County for reference — notifications cover West County only
Lake Sonoma
Last checked Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 10:20 AM PT · Last updated Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 5:00 AM PT
Outflow from Warm Springs Dam, the main feeder to the lower Russian River
118 cfs
current outflow
Lake Sonoma storage — Sonoma Water supply graph · Last updated Mon, Nov 2, 2026 · 8:37 AM PT
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