SoCo MonitorConditions as of Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 8:49 AM PT
Today's Weather
Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 5:57 AM PT — Cody's morning report · Source: NWS Area Forecast Discussion
Morning, neighbors!
Warm and dry is the story for the Lower Russian River and all of Sonoma County through early next week. High pressure is parked over us, so this weekend runs 5-10 degrees above normal with plenty of sun inland around Guerneville and Santa Rosa. Offshore flow over the higher terrain will ease by Sunday, and a front passing to our north in the Pacific Northwest may bring a bit more low cloud to the North Bay — just a subtle, short-lived break from the warmth, not a cool-down.
That warmth builds again Monday through mid-week, with highs up to 15 degrees above average at times.
Heads up at the coast: a Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Monday evening, and a Coastal Flood Advisory runs through Tuesday for our coast (and through Friday for bayshore spots). Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet, sneaker waves, and strong rip currents are expected. High tides are running about 1.6 feet above normal through the weekend. Stay off jetties and rocks and never turn your back on the ocean.
Bottom line: enjoy a sunny, warm weekend, give the surf real respect, and keep an eye out late next week — models are hinting at unsettled weather and rain chances returning by Thursday, though timing and amounts are still uncertain.
Weather Outlooks
Last checked Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 8:49 AM PT · Last updated Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 12:01 PM PT
NOAA Climate Prediction Center 6–10 day outlooks · More outlooks at CPC
Precipitation Outlook
Chance of above- or below-normal precipitation over the next 6–10 days.
Temperature Outlook
Chance of above- or below-normal temperatures over the next 6–10 days.
Russian River · Guerneville
Last checked Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 8:49 AM PT · Last updated Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 8:00 AM PT
Well below flood stage — flood stage at Guerneville is 32 ft.
Flood categories at Guerneville: Action 29 ft · Minor flood 32 ft · Moderate 35 ft · Major 40 ft
Sources: NOAA NWPS (observations) · NOAA California-Nevada River Forecast Center (forecast) · Gauge GUEC1
Austin Creek · Cazadero
Last checked Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 8:49 AM PT · Last updated Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 7:00 AM PT
Well below flood stage — flood stage on Austin Creek is 21 ft.
Flood categories at Cazadero: Action 18.5 ft · Minor flood 21 ft · Moderate 27 ft · Major 32 ft
Sources: NOAA NWPS · USGS · Gauge AUSC1 (USGS 11467200) · Observation only — no forecast is issued for this creek
Critical NWS Alerts
Last checked Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 8:49 AM PT · Last updated Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 6:33 PM PT
Beach Hazards Statement issued November 6 at 6:31PM PST until November 9 at 10:00PM PST by NWS San Francisco CA
Fri, Nov 6 · 6:31 PM – Mon, Nov 9 · 10:00 PM PT
* WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to 1.6 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the Beach Hazards Statement, an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 12 to 16 ft expected.
* WHERE...Pacific Coast.
* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 6 AM Saturday to noon PST Tuesday.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
What: For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to 1.6 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the Beach Hazards Statement, an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 12 to 16 ft expected.
Where: Pacific Coast.
When: For the Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 6 AM Saturday to noon PST Tuesday.
Impacts: Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks.
Additional Details: At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be: 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.
Source: weather.gov
Sources: National Weather Service alerts feed · Sonoma County
Other NWS Alerts
Last checked Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 8:49 AM PT · Last updated Fri, Nov 6, 2026 · 6:33 PM PT
Coastal Flood Advisory issued November 6 at 6:31PM PST until November 13 at 4:00PM PST by NWS San Francisco CA
Fri, Nov 6 · 6:31 PM – Fri, Nov 13 · 4:00 PM PT
* WHAT...Up to 1.6 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
What: Up to 1.6 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
Where: Bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay and San Pablo Bay.
When: Until 4 PM PST Friday November 13.
Impacts: High tides will result in flooding of low-lying infrastructure, isolated road closures, and coastal erosion. Rising tides will bring water and waves farther up the beach than normal, restricting escape from beaches and coastal areas.
Additional Details: At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be: 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
Source: weather.gov
Advisories, statements and other notices that don't meet the critical bar
Sources: National Weather Service alerts feed · Sonoma County
Roads & Hazards
Last checked Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 8:49 AM PT · Last updated ---
West County & the Coastal Range · County reports and the Sonoma County road closure map
Seasonal: Vacation Beach Summer Crossing — closed for the season; returns next summer.
Fire Weather & PSPS
Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 8:13 AM PT — Fire Weather Outlook
Risk is low for SoCo today: North Ops (published Nov 7, 7:30 AM PST) shows little to no risk for significant fires over the next 7 days, with no organized gusty-dry wind event — only localized northerly/easterly breezes today and the driest air of the week. PG&E lists no PSPS activity at any tier for Sonoma, Mendocino, Lake, Napa, or Marin through November 13. ERC for SoCo is 27.15, below the 60th percentile and forecast to ease down.
Power Outages
Last checked Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 8:49 AM PT · Last updated Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 8:49 AM PT
⚡ Sonoma — 3 customers out
Started Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 8:18 AM PT · Estimated restore Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 11:30 AM PT
Emerg Repairs · Status: Active
⚡ Healdsburg — 2 customers out
Started Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 8:30 AM PT · Estimated restore Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 4:30 PM PT
Planned shutdown · Status: Active
⚡ Santa Rosa — 1 customers out
Started Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 8:27 AM PT · Estimated restore no estimate yet
Cause not yet known · Status: Active
Sources: Cal OES power outage incidents (from PG&E's outage map) · Refreshed every 15 minutes · The map shows all of Sonoma County for reference — notifications cover West County only
Lake Sonoma
Last checked Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 8:49 AM PT · Last updated Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 5:00 AM PT
Outflow from Warm Springs Dam, the main feeder to the lower Russian River
117 cfs
current outflow
Lake Sonoma storage — Sonoma Water supply graph · Last updated Mon, Nov 2, 2026 · 8:37 AM PT
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