SoCo MonitorConditions as of Wed, Nov 4, 2026 · 6:00 AM PT
Today's Weather
Wed, Nov 4, 2026 · 5:57 AM PT — Cody's morning report · Source: NWS Area Forecast Discussion
What's up peeps!
A weak band of showers off Point Reyes is fading before sunrise, and skies should clear by late morning into early afternoon across Sonoma County and the North Bay.
Today is noticeably warmer here than yesterday. Inland North Bay valleys jump from the upper 50s to low 60s up into the upper 60s, with Bayshore spots in the mid to upper 60s and the coast in the low 60s. A breezy onshore push develops this afternoon and evening, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph along the coast and through the usual gaps. Morning lows were in the low to mid 40s inland, upper 40s to low 50s near the coast. Northwest flow keeps fire weather concerns at bay.
Looking ahead, we warm through the week and peak this weekend — inland valleys in the mid 70s to low 80s, coastal areas in the 60s — before cooling early next week. No rain is expected in the seven-day outlook; chances stay deflected up into the Pacific Northwest. Beyond that, rain chances may work south toward central California, but details are still uncertain.
Two coastal heads-ups: minor coastal flooding is possible around high tides Wednesday through Monday in Bayshore areas, under a Coastal Flood Advisory through 1 PM Monday. And Thursday through Saturday, long-period swell brings hazardous beach conditions — breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet, with a higher risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Stay off jetties, piers, and rocks, and never turn your back on the ocean.
Bottom line: a clearing, warmer day today in the Lower Russian River area, a dry and warm weekend ahead, and real respect needed at the coast later this week. 🤙
Weather Outlooks
Last checked Wed, Nov 4, 2026 · 6:00 AM PT · Last updated Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 12:27 PM PT
NOAA Climate Prediction Center 6–10 day outlooks · More outlooks at CPC
Precipitation Outlook
Chance of above- or below-normal precipitation over the next 6–10 days.
Temperature Outlook
Chance of above- or below-normal temperatures over the next 6–10 days.
Russian River · Guerneville
Last checked Wed, Nov 4, 2026 · 6:00 AM PT · Last updated Wed, Nov 4, 2026 · 5:00 AM PT
Well below flood stage — flood stage at Guerneville is 32 ft.
Flood categories at Guerneville: Action 29 ft · Minor flood 32 ft · Moderate 35 ft · Major 40 ft
Sources: NOAA NWPS (observations) · NOAA California-Nevada River Forecast Center (forecast) · Gauge GUEC1
Critical NWS Alerts
Last checked Wed, Nov 4, 2026 · 6:00 AM PT · Last updated Sun, Nov 1, 2026 · 1:13 AM PT
Sources: National Weather Service alerts feed · Sonoma County
Other NWS Alerts
Last checked Wed, Nov 4, 2026 · 6:00 AM PT · Last updated Wed, Nov 4, 2026 · 12:43 AM PT
Beach Hazards Statement issued November 4 at 12:33AM PST until November 7 at 7:00PM PST by NWS San Francisco CA
Thu, Nov 5 · 5:00 AM – Sat, Nov 7 · 7:00 PM PT
* WHAT...An increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 12 to 16 ft expected.
What: An increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 12 to 16 ft expected.
Where: Pacific Coast beaches.
When: From 5 AM Thursday to 7 PM PST Saturday.
Impacts: Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks.
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.
Source: weather.gov
Coastal Flood Advisory issued November 4 at 12:33AM PST until November 9 at 1:00PM PST by NWS San Francisco CA
Wed, Nov 4 · 6:00 AM – Mon, Nov 9 · 1:00 PM PT
* WHAT...Up to 1.6 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
What: Up to 1.6 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
Where: Bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay and San Pablo Bay.
When: From 6 AM Wednesday to 1 PM PST Monday.
Impacts: High tides will result in flooding of low-lying infrastructure, isolated road closures, and coastal erosion. Rising tides will bring water and waves farther up the beach than normal, restricting escape from beaches and coastal areas.
Additional Details: At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.0 ft above normal (6.8 ft MLLW) at 8:00 AM Wednesday 11/4, 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 8:35 AM Thursday 11/5, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 9:08 AM Friday 11/6, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9. These predictions include up to 1.2 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
Source: weather.gov
Advisories, statements and other notices that don't meet the critical bar
Sources: National Weather Service alerts feed · Sonoma County
Roads & Hazards
Last checked Wed, Nov 4, 2026 · 6:00 AM PT · Last updated ---
West County & the Coastal Range · County reports and the Sonoma County road closure map
Seasonal: Vacation Beach Summer Crossing — closed for the season; returns next summer.
Fire Weather & PSPS
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 7:59 AM PT — Fire Weather Outlook
Risk is low across the North Bay today and through the week: North Ops shows little to no fire potential for SoCo over the next 7 days, and no offshore wind event is in the window. PG&E's 7-day outlook lists no PSPS activity at any tier for Sonoma, Mendocino, Lake, Napa, or Marin. Fuel indices are running low, with ERC at 26.48, near the 45th percentile.
Power Outages
Last checked Wed, Nov 4, 2026 · 6:00 AM PT · Last updated Wed, Nov 4, 2026 · 6:00 AM PT
Sources: Cal OES power outage incidents (from PG&E's outage map) · Refreshed every 15 minutes · The map shows all of Sonoma County for reference — notifications cover West County only
Lake Sonoma
Last checked Wed, Nov 4, 2026 · 6:00 AM PT · Last updated Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 5:00 AM PT
Outflow from Warm Springs Dam, the main feeder to the lower Russian River
118 cfs
current outflow
Lake Sonoma storage — Sonoma Water supply graph · Last updated Mon, Nov 2, 2026 · 8:37 AM PT
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