SoCo MonitorConditions as of Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 1:49 PM PT
Today's Weather
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 5:57 AM PT — Cody's morning report · Source: NWS Area Forecast Discussion
Morning, neighbors!
Rain is back for the North Bay today. A low pressure system off the coast brings rain into Sonoma County around sunrise, lingering into tonight and making for a wet morning commute. Totals look highest in the coastal North Bay mountains at 0.5 to 0.75 inches, with 0.25 to 0.5 inches for the rest of the North Bay, including Santa Rosa and the Lower Russian River area.
This afternoon is the wildcard. Cold air aloft could destabilize things enough for thunderstorms — yes, a chance of boom boom and flashy flashy — mainly over the coastal waters, with a low chance of rotating cells or waterspouts moving inland. That threat fades pretty quickly once the low moves inland, and showers taper off tonight.
Heads up at the coast: hazardous beach conditions run through this evening, with sneaker waves and strong rip currents, and they return Thursday through Saturday. Coastal flooding is also possible Wednesday through Sunday.
After today, high pressure builds in. Wednesday stays seasonably cool in the 60s to lower 70s, then we warm steadily — by Saturday, highs reach the 70s to lower 80s, well above normal, under mostly clear skies.
Bottom line: wet and unsettled today, then a dry, warming stretch into a beautiful weekend. Stay safe out there.
Weather Outlooks
Last checked Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 1:49 PM PT · Last updated Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 12:27 PM PT
NOAA Climate Prediction Center 6–10 day outlooks · More outlooks at CPC
Precipitation Outlook
Chance of above- or below-normal precipitation over the next 6–10 days.
Temperature Outlook
Chance of above- or below-normal temperatures over the next 6–10 days.
Russian River · Guerneville
Last checked Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 1:49 PM PT · Last updated Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 1:00 PM PT
Well below flood stage — flood stage at Guerneville is 32 ft.
Flood categories at Guerneville: Action 29 ft · Minor flood 32 ft · Moderate 35 ft · Major 40 ft
Sources: NOAA NWPS (observations) · NOAA California-Nevada River Forecast Center (forecast) · Gauge GUEC1
Critical NWS Alerts
Last checked Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 1:49 PM PT · Last updated Sun, Nov 1, 2026 · 1:13 AM PT
Sources: National Weather Service alerts feed · Sonoma County
Other NWS Alerts
Last checked Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 1:49 PM PT · Last updated Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 11:33 AM PT
Coastal Flood Advisory issued November 3 at 11:25AM PST until November 9 at 1:00PM PST by NWS San Francisco CA
Wed, Nov 4 · 6:00 AM – Mon, Nov 9 · 1:00 PM PT
* WHAT...Up to 1.6 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
What: Up to 1.6 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
Where: North Bay Interior Valleys and San Francisco Bay Shoreline Counties.
When: From 6 AM Wednesday to 1 PM PST Monday.
Impacts: High tides will result in flooding of low-lying infrastructure, isolated road closures, and coastal erosion. Rising tides will bring water and waves farther up the beach than normal, restricting escape from beaches and coastal areas.
Additional Details: At the San Francisco tidal gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.0 ft above normal (6.8 ft MLLW) at 8:00 AM Wednesday 11/4, 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 8:35 AM Thursday 11/5, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 9:08 AM Friday 11/6, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9. These predictions include up to 1.2 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
Source: weather.gov
Beach Hazards Statement issued November 3 at 11:25AM PST until November 3 at 8:00PM PST by NWS San Francisco CA
Tue, Nov 3 · 11:25 AM – Tue, Nov 3 · 8:00 PM PT
* WHAT...An increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents.
What: An increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents.
Where: Pacific Coast beaches.
When: Through 8 PM Tuesday.
Impacts: Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks.
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.
Source: weather.gov
Advisories, statements and other notices that don't meet the critical bar
Sources: National Weather Service alerts feed · Sonoma County
Roads & Hazards
Last checked Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 1:49 PM PT · Last updated ---
West County & the Coastal Range · County reports and the Sonoma County road closure map
Seasonal: Vacation Beach Summer Crossing — closed for the season; returns next summer.
Fire Weather & PSPS
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 7:59 AM PT — Fire Weather Outlook
Risk is low across the North Bay today and through the week: North Ops shows little to no fire potential for SoCo over the next 7 days, and no offshore wind event is in the window. PG&E's 7-day outlook lists no PSPS activity at any tier for Sonoma, Mendocino, Lake, Napa, or Marin. Fuel indices are running low, with ERC at 26.48, near the 45th percentile.
Power Outages
Last checked Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 1:49 PM PT · Last updated Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 1:49 PM PT
⚡ Monte Rio — 7 customers out
Started Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 10:56 AM PT · Estimated restore Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 9:00 PM PT
Crew patrolling to find the cause · Status: Active
⚡ Healdsburg — 5 customers out
Started Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 8:31 AM PT · Estimated restore Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 4:30 PM PT
Planned shutdown · Status: Active
⚡ Santa Rosa — 5 customers out
Started Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 12:03 PM PT · Estimated restore Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 3:15 PM PT
Emerg Repairs · Status: Active
⚡ Healdsburg — 4 customers out
Started Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 11:17 AM PT · Estimated restore Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 3:45 PM PT
Crew patrolling to find the cause · Status: Active
⚡ Sebastopol — 1 customers out
Started Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 12:32 PM PT · Estimated restore Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 3:45 PM PT
Crew patrolling to find the cause · Status: Active
⚡ Cotati — 1 customers out
Started Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 12:39 PM PT · Estimated restore Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 5:30 PM PT
Crew patrolling to find the cause · Status: Active
⚡ Petaluma — 1 customers out
Started Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 1:27 PM PT · Estimated restore no estimate yet
Cause not yet known · Status: Active
Sources: Cal OES power outage incidents (from PG&E's outage map) · Refreshed every 15 minutes · The map shows all of Sonoma County for reference — notifications cover West County only
Lake Sonoma
Last checked Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 1:49 PM PT · Last updated Tue, Nov 3, 2026 · 5:00 AM PT
Outflow from Warm Springs Dam, the main feeder to the lower Russian River
118 cfs
current outflow
Lake Sonoma storage — Sonoma Water supply graph · Last updated Mon, Nov 2, 2026 · 8:37 AM PT
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