SoCo MonitorConditions as of Fri, Nov 13, 2026 · 7:03 PM PT
Today's Weather
Fri, Nov 13, 2026 · 5:57 AM PT — Cody's morning report · Source: NWS Area Forecast Discussion
Hey folks — rain and wind are the story today for the Lower Russian River and Sonoma County.
Pre-frontal showers were already showing up overnight in the Sonoma County coastal ranges, and the main frontal band moves into the North Bay around the morning commute, then south through the day. Expect about a half inch to an inch of rain for most of our area. Winds build ahead of and with the front — sustained 15-30 mph with gusts 30-40 mph, locally higher at the immediate coast.
There's also a slight, about 15%, chance of thunderstorms embedded in the rain band — so a little boom boom and flashy flashy is possible this morning and afternoon. Behind the front, rain turns showery and winds ease and shift west to northwest. Highs will be much cooler than yesterday, upper 50s to lower 60s.
Beaches are hazardous and get worse. A Beach Hazards Statement runs through this evening for breaking waves 15-20 feet, sneaker waves, and rip currents, then a High Surf Warning takes over 6 PM tonight through early Sunday for surf 25-35 feet on Saturday. Please stay out of the water and off rocks and seawalls. Coastal flooding from high tides also continues through today's high tide.
Saturday brings a lull with a few lingering morning showers and highs in the low to mid 60s. Another system arrives Sunday into early Monday with similar rain totals, a break later Monday into Tuesday, then a third system Tuesday through Thursday. Periods of rain continue through next week. For now flooding concerns stay minimal — mostly nuisance flooding in urban spots and small streams — but NWS notes that as soils saturate over the week, shallow landslide risk will rise. We'll keep watching it.
Weather Outlooks
Last checked Fri, Nov 13, 2026 · 7:03 PM PT · Last updated Fri, Nov 13, 2026 · 12:01 PM PT
NOAA Climate Prediction Center 6–10 day outlooks · More outlooks at CPC
Precipitation Outlook
Chance of above- or below-normal precipitation over the next 6–10 days.
Temperature Outlook
Chance of above- or below-normal temperatures over the next 6–10 days.
Russian River · Guerneville
Last checked Fri, Nov 13, 2026 · 7:03 PM PT · Last updated Fri, Nov 13, 2026 · 6:00 PM PT
Well below flood stage — flood stage at Guerneville is 32 ft.
Flood categories at Guerneville: Action 29 ft · Minor flood 32 ft · Moderate 35 ft · Major 40 ft
Sources: NOAA NWPS (observations) · NOAA California-Nevada River Forecast Center (forecast) · Gauge GUEC1
Austin Creek · Cazadero
Last checked Fri, Nov 13, 2026 · 7:03 PM PT · Last updated Fri, Nov 13, 2026 · 6:00 PM PT
Well below flood stage — flood stage on Austin Creek is 21 ft.
Flood categories at Cazadero: Action 18.5 ft · Minor flood 21 ft · Moderate 27 ft · Major 32 ft
Sources: NOAA NWPS · USGS · Gauge AUSC1 (USGS 11467200) · Observation only — no forecast is issued for this creek
Critical NWS Alerts
Last checked Fri, Nov 13, 2026 · 7:03 PM PT · Last updated Fri, Nov 13, 2026 · 6:04 PM PT
High Surf Warning issued November 13 at 5:57PM PST until November 15 at 4:00AM PST by NWS San Francisco CA
Fri, Nov 13 · 6:00 PM – Sun, Nov 15 · 4:00 AM PT
* WHAT...For the High Surf Warning, dangerously large breaking waves of 25 to 35 ft, with occasional sets of 40 to 50 ft at favored breakpoints. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, large breaking waves will run up beaches and crash over seawalls, inundating adjacent, low-lying infrastructure.
* WHERE...All Pacific Coast Beaches.
* WHEN...For the High Surf Warning, until 4 AM PST Sunday. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from midnight tonight to 6 PM PST Saturday.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
What: For the High Surf Warning, dangerously large breaking waves of 25 to 35 ft, with occasional sets of 40 to 50 ft at favored breakpoints. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, large breaking waves will run up beaches and crash over seawalls, inundating adjacent, low-lying infrastructure.
Where: All Pacific Coast Beaches.
When: For the High Surf Warning, until 4 AM PST Sunday. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from midnight tonight to 6 PM PST Saturday.
Impacts: High tides will result in flooding of low-lying infrastructure, isolated road closures, and coastal erosion. Rising tides will bring water and waves farther up the beach than normal, restricting escape from beaches and coastal areas. Dangerously large breaking waves can overpower swimmers, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks resulting in significant physical injury and increasing the risk of drowning. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks.
Additional Details: The Coastal Flood Advisory on Saturday is specifically for the Pacific Coast, where large breaking waves will spill over sea walls and run up beaches onto adjacent infrastructure.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure.
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.
Source: weather.gov
Sources: National Weather Service alerts feed · Sonoma County
Other NWS Alerts
Last checked Fri, Nov 13, 2026 · 7:03 PM PT · Last updated Fri, Nov 13, 2026 · 6:04 PM PT
Coastal Flood Advisory issued November 13 at 5:57PM PST until November 14 at 6:00PM PST by NWS San Francisco CA
Sat, Nov 14 · 12:00 AM – Sat, Nov 14 · 6:00 PM PT
* WHAT...For the High Surf Warning, dangerously large breaking waves of 25 to 35 ft, with occasional sets of 40 to 50 ft at favored breakpoints. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, large breaking waves will run up beaches and crash over seawalls, inundating adjacent, low-lying infrastructure.
What: For the High Surf Warning, dangerously large breaking waves of 25 to 35 ft, with occasional sets of 40 to 50 ft at favored breakpoints. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, large breaking waves will run up beaches and crash over seawalls, inundating adjacent, low-lying infrastructure.
Where: All Pacific Coast Beaches.
When: For the High Surf Warning, until 4 AM PST Sunday. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from midnight tonight to 6 PM PST Saturday.
Impacts: High tides will result in flooding of low-lying infrastructure, isolated road closures, and coastal erosion. Rising tides will bring water and waves farther up the beach than normal, restricting escape from beaches and coastal areas. Dangerously large breaking waves can overpower swimmers, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks resulting in significant physical injury and increasing the risk of drowning. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks.
Additional Details: The Coastal Flood Advisory on Saturday is specifically for the Pacific Coast, where large breaking waves will spill over sea walls and run up beaches onto adjacent infrastructure.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure.
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.
Source: weather.gov
Advisories, statements and other notices that don't meet the critical bar
Sources: National Weather Service alerts feed · Sonoma County
Roads & Hazards
Last checked Fri, Nov 13, 2026 · 7:03 PM PT · Last updated ---
West County & the Coastal Range · County reports and the Sonoma County road closure map
Seasonal: Vacation Beach Summer Crossing — closed for the season; returns next summer.
Fire Weather & PSPS
Fri, Nov 13, 2026 · 8:00 AM PT — Fire Weather Outlook
North Ops (published Fri Nov 13) shows little to no risk for SoCo, with no sustained offshore wind event detected for Santa Rosa and three wet systems bringing 4–6 inches of rain to the coast over the next week. ERC is 26.97, below the 60th percentile (about the 46th), with the forecast dropping sharply. PG&E lists no PSPS activity at any tier for Sonoma, Mendocino, Lake, Napa, or Marin through Nov 19.
Power Outages
Last checked Fri, Nov 13, 2026 · 7:03 PM PT · Last updated Fri, Nov 13, 2026 · 7:03 PM PT
⚡ Kenwood — 1 customers out
Started Fri, Nov 13, 2026 · 4:34 PM PT · Estimated restore Fri, Nov 13, 2026 · 8:45 PM PT
Replce Txfmr · Status: Active
Sources: Cal OES power outage incidents (from PG&E's outage map) · Refreshed every 15 minutes · The map shows all of Sonoma County for reference — notifications cover West County only
Lake Sonoma
Last checked Fri, Nov 13, 2026 · 7:03 PM PT · Last updated Fri, Nov 13, 2026 · 5:00 AM PT
Outflow from Warm Springs Dam, the main feeder to the lower Russian River
110 cfs
current outflow
Lake Sonoma storage — Sonoma Water supply graph · Last updated Mon, Nov 9, 2026 · 10:05 AM PT
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