SoCo MonitorConditions as of Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 6:33 PM PT
Today's Weather
Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 5:57 AM PT — Cody's morning report · Source: NWS Area Forecast Discussion
Hey folks,
Low clouds and fog are hanging in the North Bay valleys this morning, then we turn mainly sunny and seasonally warm here in Sonoma County and along the Lower Russian River. That warm, dry pattern holds through Thursday, though clouds build back in tonight and Thursday stays mainly cloudy. A little coastal drizzle or light rain is possible late Thursday, with better wet weather chances Thursday night.
The change starts Friday. A series of strong cold fronts — two to three of them — moves in Friday through early next week. The first front brings rain and wind Friday and will affect the Friday commute, and forecasters note it could arrive a bit sooner than models show. A second front follows Sunday into Monday with more rain and wind. Bottom line: beneficial rain is coming, just plan for a soggy end to the week.
Along the coast, take this seriously: a Beach Hazards Statement runs tonight through Friday afternoon for rip currents and sneaker waves, then a High Surf Warning Friday evening through early Sunday. Breakers build to 15-20 feet, peaking up to 30 feet Saturday — stay out of the water, off the rocks, and never turn your back on the ocean. Coastal flooding from high tides also continues through Friday.
Enjoy today's sunshine while we've got it.
Weather Outlooks
Last checked Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 6:33 PM PT · Last updated Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 12:01 PM PT
NOAA Climate Prediction Center 6–10 day outlooks · More outlooks at CPC
Precipitation Outlook
Chance of above- or below-normal precipitation over the next 6–10 days.
Temperature Outlook
Chance of above- or below-normal temperatures over the next 6–10 days.
Russian River · Guerneville
Last checked Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 6:33 PM PT · Last updated Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 5:00 PM PT
Well below flood stage — flood stage at Guerneville is 32 ft.
Flood categories at Guerneville: Action 29 ft · Minor flood 32 ft · Moderate 35 ft · Major 40 ft
Sources: NOAA NWPS (observations) · NOAA California-Nevada River Forecast Center (forecast) · Gauge GUEC1
Austin Creek · Cazadero
Last checked Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 6:33 PM PT · Last updated Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 5:00 PM PT
Well below flood stage — flood stage on Austin Creek is 21 ft.
Flood categories at Cazadero: Action 18.5 ft · Minor flood 21 ft · Moderate 27 ft · Major 32 ft
Sources: NOAA NWPS · USGS · Gauge AUSC1 (USGS 11467200) · Observation only — no forecast is issued for this creek
Critical NWS Alerts
Last checked Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 6:33 PM PT · Last updated Mon, Nov 9, 2026 · 10:03 PM PT
Sources: National Weather Service alerts feed · Sonoma County
Other NWS Alerts
Last checked Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 6:33 PM PT · Last updated Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 6:13 PM PT
High Surf Warning issued November 11 at 6:09PM PST until November 15 at 4:00AM PST by NWS San Francisco CA
Fri, Nov 13 · 6:00 PM – Sun, Nov 15 · 4:00 AM PT
* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 15 to 20 ft expected. For the High Surf Warning, dangerously large breaking waves of 25 to 30 ft expected.
What: For the Beach Hazards Statement, an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 15 to 20 ft expected. For the High Surf Warning, dangerously large breaking waves of 25 to 30 ft expected.
Where: Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore, San Francisco Peninsula Coast and Northern Monterey Bay Counties.
When: For the Beach Hazards Statement, through Friday afternoon. For the High Surf Warning, from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday.
Impacts: Dangerously large breaking waves can overpower swimmers, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks resulting in significant physical injury and increasing the risk of drowning. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks.
Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure.
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.
Source: weather.gov
Coastal Flood Advisory issued November 11 at 6:09PM PST until November 13 at 4:00PM PST by NWS San Francisco CA
Wed, Nov 11 · 6:09 PM – Fri, Nov 13 · 4:00 PM PT
* WHAT...Up to 1.5 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
What: Up to 1.5 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
Where: North Bay Interior Valleys and San Francisco Bay Shoreline Counties.
When: Until 4 PM Friday.
Impacts: High tides will result in flooding of low-lying infrastructure, isolated road closures, and coastal erosion. Rising tides will bring water and waves farther up the beach than normal, restricting escape from beaches and coastal areas.
Additional Details: At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be: 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
Source: weather.gov
Beach Hazards Statement issued November 11 at 6:09PM PST until November 13 at 6:00PM PST by NWS San Francisco CA
Wed, Nov 11 · 6:09 PM – Fri, Nov 13 · 6:00 PM PT
* WHAT...For the Beach Hazards Statement, an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 15 to 20 ft expected. For the High Surf Warning, dangerously large breaking waves of 25 to 30 ft expected.
What: For the Beach Hazards Statement, an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 15 to 20 ft expected. For the High Surf Warning, dangerously large breaking waves of 25 to 30 ft expected.
Where: Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore, San Francisco Peninsula Coast and Northern Monterey Bay Counties.
When: For the Beach Hazards Statement, through Friday afternoon. For the High Surf Warning, from 6 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday.
Impacts: Dangerously large breaking waves can overpower swimmers, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks resulting in significant physical injury and increasing the risk of drowning. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks.
Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure.
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.
Source: weather.gov
Advisories, statements and other notices that don't meet the critical bar
Sources: National Weather Service alerts feed · Sonoma County
Roads & Hazards
Last checked Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 6:33 PM PT · Last updated ---
West County & the Coastal Range · County reports and the Sonoma County road closure map
Seasonal: Vacation Beach Summer Crossing — closed for the season; returns next summer.
Fire Weather & PSPS
Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 7:59 AM PT — Fire Weather Outlook
North Ops calls it little to no risk for significant fire in SoCo, with no sustained offshore wind event detected. ERC sits at 26.62, below the 60th percentile (about the 46th), with the forecast falling sharply as a wet frontal system arrives Friday. PG&E lists no PSPS activity at any tier for Sonoma, Mendocino, Lake, Napa, or Marin through Nov 17.
Power Outages
Last checked Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 6:33 PM PT · Last updated Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 6:33 PM PT
⚡ Rio Nido — 12 customers out
Started Tue, Nov 10, 2026 · 9:56 AM PT · Estimated restore Tue, Nov 10, 2026 · 3:00 PM PT
Planned shutdown · Status: Active
⚡ Sebastopol — 9 customers out
Started Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 5:32 PM PT · Estimated restore Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 9:15 PM PT
Crew patrolling to find the cause · Status: Active
⚡ Sebastopol — 1 customers out
Started Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 4:07 PM PT · Estimated restore Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 7:30 PM PT
Crew patrolling to find the cause · Status: Active
Sources: Cal OES power outage incidents (from PG&E's outage map) · Refreshed every 15 minutes · The map shows all of Sonoma County for reference — notifications cover West County only
Lake Sonoma
Last checked Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 6:33 PM PT · Last updated Wed, Nov 11, 2026 · 5:00 AM PT
Outflow from Warm Springs Dam, the main feeder to the lower Russian River
116 cfs
current outflow
Lake Sonoma storage — Sonoma Water supply graph · Last updated Mon, Nov 9, 2026 · 10:05 AM PT
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