SoCo MonitorConditions as of Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 10:34 AM PT
Today's Weather
Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 5:57 AM PT — Cody's morning report · Source: NWS Area Forecast Discussion
Hey folks!
Dry and a little warmer than normal is the story to start the week for Sonoma County and the North Bay. A weak cold front moving in early Sunday will fizzle as it comes onshore, so no rain is expected here. Low clouds should burn off Sunday morning, with high clouds sticking around.
Even with a touch of cooling along the coast Sunday through Monday, highs stay 5 to 10 degrees above normal. High pressure builds back in Monday night with gentle offshore flow, and above-normal temperatures hold through Wednesday.
Heads up on the coast: a Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through Monday evening, with breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet, up to 18 feet at favored spots, plus sneaker waves and strong rip currents. A Coastal Flood Advisory for high tides runs through Friday in bayshore areas, and through noon Tuesday for parts of the coast including Sonoma County — expect minor tidal flooding around high tide.
Things change late week. A trough approaches Thursday, winds shift south-southwesterly, and rain becomes possible as early as Friday, likely lingering into the weekend. There is a very low, non-zero chance of boom boom and flashy flashy late week, but confidence is still low. NWS suggests starting winter-season prep now.
Bottom line: enjoy the dry, warm stretch through midweek, respect the surf, and keep an eye on late-week rain.
Weather Outlooks
Last checked Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 10:34 AM PT · Last updated Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 12:01 PM PT
NOAA Climate Prediction Center 6–10 day outlooks · More outlooks at CPC
Precipitation Outlook
Chance of above- or below-normal precipitation over the next 6–10 days.
Temperature Outlook
Chance of above- or below-normal temperatures over the next 6–10 days.
Russian River · Guerneville
Last checked Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 10:34 AM PT · Last updated Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 9:00 AM PT
Well below flood stage — flood stage at Guerneville is 32 ft.
Flood categories at Guerneville: Action 29 ft · Minor flood 32 ft · Moderate 35 ft · Major 40 ft
Sources: NOAA NWPS (observations) · NOAA California-Nevada River Forecast Center (forecast) · Gauge GUEC1
Austin Creek · Cazadero
Last checked Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 10:34 AM PT · Last updated Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 9:00 AM PT
Well below flood stage — flood stage on Austin Creek is 21 ft.
Flood categories at Cazadero: Action 18.5 ft · Minor flood 21 ft · Moderate 27 ft · Major 32 ft
Sources: NOAA NWPS · USGS · Gauge AUSC1 (USGS 11467200) · Observation only — no forecast is issued for this creek
Critical NWS Alerts
Last checked Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 10:34 AM PT · Last updated Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 8:13 PM PT
Beach Hazards Statement issued November 7 at 8:09PM PST until November 9 at 10:00PM PST by NWS San Francisco CA
Sat, Nov 7 · 8:09 PM – Mon, Nov 9 · 10:00 PM PT
* WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to 1.6 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the Beach Hazards Statement, an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 12 to 16 ft expected.
* WHERE...Pacific Coast.
* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, through noon PST Tuesday.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
What: For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to 1.6 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the Beach Hazards Statement, an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 12 to 16 ft expected.
Where: Pacific Coast.
When: For the Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, through noon PST Tuesday.
Impacts: Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks.
Additional Details: At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be: 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10. These predictions include up to 1.2 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.
Source: weather.gov
Sources: National Weather Service alerts feed · Sonoma County
Other NWS Alerts
Last checked Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 10:34 AM PT · Last updated Sat, Nov 7, 2026 · 8:13 PM PT
Coastal Flood Advisory issued November 7 at 8:09PM PST until November 13 at 4:00PM PST by NWS San Francisco CA
Sat, Nov 7 · 8:09 PM – Fri, Nov 13 · 4:00 PM PT
* WHAT...Up to 1.6 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
What: Up to 1.6 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
Where: Bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay and San Pablo Bay.
When: Until 4 PM PST Friday.
Impacts: High tides will result in flooding of low-lying infrastructure, isolated road closures, and coastal erosion. Rising tides will bring water and waves farther up the beach than normal, restricting escape from beaches and coastal areas.
Additional Details: At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be: 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.1 ft above normal (6.9 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.4 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
Source: weather.gov
Advisories, statements and other notices that don't meet the critical bar
Sources: National Weather Service alerts feed · Sonoma County
Roads & Hazards
Last checked Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 10:34 AM PT · Last updated ---
West County & the Coastal Range · County reports and the Sonoma County road closure map
Seasonal: Vacation Beach Summer Crossing — closed for the season; returns next summer.
Fire Weather & PSPS
Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 8:02 AM PT — Fire Weather Outlook
North Ops calls it little to no risk for significant fire in SoCo: no organized gusty, dry wind event is in the outlook, and ERC sits at 28.3, below the 60th percentile with the forecast trending down. No offshore wind event is detected over the next seven days, and PG&E lists no PSPS activity at any tier for Sonoma, Mendocino, Lake, Napa, or Marin through Nov 14. A cooler, generally wetter pattern is expected to build late next week.
Power Outages
Last checked Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 10:34 AM PT · Last updated Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 10:34 AM PT
⚡ Sonoma — 43 customers out
Started Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 6:18 AM PT · Estimated restore Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 11:15 AM PT
Thrd Party · Status: Active
⚡ Healdsburg — 2 customers out
Started Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 8:22 AM PT · Estimated restore Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 4:30 PM PT
Planned shutdown · Status: Active
Sources: Cal OES power outage incidents (from PG&E's outage map) · Refreshed every 15 minutes · The map shows all of Sonoma County for reference — notifications cover West County only
Lake Sonoma
Last checked Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 10:34 AM PT · Last updated Sun, Nov 8, 2026 · 5:00 AM PT
Outflow from Warm Springs Dam, the main feeder to the lower Russian River
117 cfs
current outflow
Lake Sonoma storage — Sonoma Water supply graph · Last updated Mon, Nov 2, 2026 · 8:37 AM PT
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