SoCo MonitorConditions as of Sat, Nov 14, 2026 · 3:18 PM PT
Today's Weather
Sat, Nov 14, 2026 · 5:57 AM PT — Cody's morning report · Source: NWS Area Forecast Discussion
Morning, neighbors — scattered showers this morning, then a very hazardous coast is the headline for the Lower Russian River and Sonoma County today.
Post-frontal showers linger through the morning, skies start partly to mostly cloudy, and clouds increase this afternoon and evening as the next system approaches. Highs stay cool — mid 60s inland, low 60s at the coast, mid to upper 50s in the higher elevations. Winds stay gentle today, turning southerly, with some gusts possible in the North Bay mountains tonight.
Please stay away from the beach. A High Surf Warning is in effect through 4 AM Sunday for breaking waves 25 to 35 feet, with a high risk of sneaker waves and rip currents, and a Coastal Flood Advisory runs through 6 PM today for wave runup and coastal flooding. NWS is direct: do not go in the water, avoid rocks and seawalls, and never turn your back on the ocean. The risk of drowning is very high this weekend.
That next system brings rain Sunday into early Monday — 1 to 1.5 inches in the Sonoma County coastal ranges. Winds gust 20 to 30 mph as the front moves through. A lull follows later Monday into Tuesday, then a third system arrives Tuesday through Thursday that could be stronger and slower. As soils saturate, flooding concerns will increase as creeks and streams approach bankfull. The pattern stays active, with rain continuing through next week.
Bottom line: showers taper today, stay clear of the coast, and plan for a wet Sunday into Monday.
Weather Outlooks
Last checked Sat, Nov 14, 2026 · 3:18 PM PT · Last updated Sat, Nov 14, 2026 · 12:01 PM PT
NOAA Climate Prediction Center 6–10 day outlooks · More outlooks at CPC
Precipitation Outlook
Chance of above- or below-normal precipitation over the next 6–10 days.
Temperature Outlook
Chance of above- or below-normal temperatures over the next 6–10 days.
Russian River · Guerneville
Last checked Sat, Nov 14, 2026 · 3:18 PM PT · Last updated Sat, Nov 14, 2026 · 2:00 PM PT
Well below flood stage — flood stage at Guerneville is 32 ft.
Flood categories at Guerneville: Action 29 ft · Minor flood 32 ft · Moderate 35 ft · Major 40 ft
Sources: NOAA NWPS (observations) · NOAA California-Nevada River Forecast Center (forecast) · Gauge GUEC1
Austin Creek · Cazadero
Last checked Sat, Nov 14, 2026 · 3:18 PM PT · Last updated Sat, Nov 14, 2026 · 2:00 PM PT
Well below flood stage — flood stage on Austin Creek is 21 ft.
Flood categories at Cazadero: Action 18.5 ft · Minor flood 21 ft · Moderate 27 ft · Major 32 ft
Sources: NOAA NWPS · USGS · Gauge AUSC1 (USGS 11467200) · Observation only — no forecast is issued for this creek
Critical NWS Alerts
Last checked Sat, Nov 14, 2026 · 3:18 PM PT · Last updated Sat, Nov 14, 2026 · 1:14 AM PT
High Surf Warning issued November 14 at 1:05AM PST until November 15 at 4:00AM PST by NWS San Francisco CA
Sat, Nov 14 · 1:05 AM – Sun, Nov 15 · 4:00 AM PT
* WHAT...For the High Surf Warning, dangerously large breaking waves of 25 to 35 ft, with occasional sets of 40 to 50 ft at favored breakpoints. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, large breaking waves will run up beaches and crash over seawalls, inundating adjacent, low-lying infrastructure.
* WHERE...All Pacific Coast Beaches.
* WHEN...For the High Surf Warning, until 4 AM PST Sunday. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, now through 6 PM PST today.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
What: For the High Surf Warning, dangerously large breaking waves of 25 to 35 ft, with occasional sets of 40 to 50 ft at favored breakpoints. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, large breaking waves will run up beaches and crash over seawalls, inundating adjacent, low-lying infrastructure.
Where: All Pacific Coast Beaches.
When: For the High Surf Warning, until 4 AM PST Sunday. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, now through 6 PM PST today.
Impacts: High tides will result in flooding of low-lying infrastructure, isolated road closures, and coastal erosion. Rising tides will bring water and waves farther up the beach than normal, restricting escape from beaches and coastal areas. Dangerously large breaking waves can overpower swimmers, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks resulting in significant physical injury and increasing the risk of drowning. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks.
Additional Details: The Coastal Flood Advisory today is specifically for the Pacific Coast, where large breaking waves will spill over sea walls and run up beaches onto adjacent infrastructure.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure.
Source: weather.gov
Sources: National Weather Service alerts feed · Sonoma County
Other NWS Alerts
Last checked Sat, Nov 14, 2026 · 3:18 PM PT · Last updated Sat, Nov 14, 2026 · 1:14 AM PT
Coastal Flood Advisory issued November 14 at 1:05AM PST until November 14 at 6:00PM PST by NWS San Francisco CA
Sat, Nov 14 · 1:05 AM – Sat, Nov 14 · 6:00 PM PT
* WHAT...For the High Surf Warning, dangerously large breaking waves of 25 to 35 ft, with occasional sets of 40 to 50 ft at favored breakpoints. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, large breaking waves will run up beaches and crash over seawalls, inundating adjacent, low-lying infrastructure.
What: For the High Surf Warning, dangerously large breaking waves of 25 to 35 ft, with occasional sets of 40 to 50 ft at favored breakpoints. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, large breaking waves will run up beaches and crash over seawalls, inundating adjacent, low-lying infrastructure.
Where: All Pacific Coast Beaches.
When: For the High Surf Warning, until 4 AM PST Sunday. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, now through 6 PM PST today.
Impacts: High tides will result in flooding of low-lying infrastructure, isolated road closures, and coastal erosion. Rising tides will bring water and waves farther up the beach than normal, restricting escape from beaches and coastal areas. Dangerously large breaking waves can overpower swimmers, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks resulting in significant physical injury and increasing the risk of drowning. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks.
Additional Details: The Coastal Flood Advisory today is specifically for the Pacific Coast, where large breaking waves will spill over sea walls and run up beaches onto adjacent infrastructure.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
Everyone should remain out of the water due to life-threatening surf conditions. Stay off of jetties, piers, and other waterside infrastructure.
Source: weather.gov
Advisories, statements and other notices that don't meet the critical bar
Sources: National Weather Service alerts feed · Sonoma County
Roads & Hazards
Last checked Sat, Nov 14, 2026 · 3:18 PM PT · Last updated ---
West County & the Coastal Range · County reports and the Sonoma County road closure map
Seasonal: Vacation Beach Summer Crossing — closed for the season; returns next summer.
Fire Weather & PSPS
Sat, Nov 14, 2026 · 8:02 AM PT — Fire Weather Outlook
North Ops (published Sat Nov 14) shows little to no significant fire risk for SoCo, with ERCs near to below seasonal averages and falling well below critical levels. No sustained offshore wind event is detected for Santa Rosa, and wet systems bring more rain Sunday and again Wednesday-Thursday. ERC is 19.7, below the 60th percentile (about the 34th), and PG&E lists no PSPS activity at any tier for Sonoma, Mendocino, Lake, Napa, or Marin through Nov 20.
Power Outages
Last checked Sat, Nov 14, 2026 · 3:18 PM PT · Last updated Sat, Nov 14, 2026 · 3:18 PM PT
⚡ Windsor — 4 customers out
Started Sat, Nov 14, 2026 · 3:03 PM PT · Estimated restore no estimate yet
Cause not yet known · Status: Active
Sources: Cal OES power outage incidents (from PG&E's outage map) · Refreshed every 15 minutes · The map shows all of Sonoma County for reference — notifications cover West County only
Lake Sonoma
Last checked Sat, Nov 14, 2026 · 3:18 PM PT · Last updated Sat, Nov 14, 2026 · 5:00 AM PT
Outflow from Warm Springs Dam, the main feeder to the lower Russian River
110 cfs
current outflow
Lake Sonoma storage — Sonoma Water supply graph · Last updated Mon, Nov 9, 2026 · 10:05 AM PT
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