SoCo MonitorConditions as of Thu, Nov 5, 2026 · 8:20 AM PT
Today's Weather
Thu, Nov 5, 2026 · 5:57 AM PT — Cody's morning report · Source: NWS Area Forecast Discussion
Morning, neighbors!
A weak ridge is building over California, bringing a warmer air mass and a quiet stretch ahead for the Lower Russian River and Sonoma County.
Today will be about 5 degrees warmer than yesterday. High clouds should keep inland spots in the mid 70s, with 60s along the coast. Overnight, offshore NNE winds were gusting to 30 mph at Mt. St. Helena, and patchy fog developed in the North Bay valleys early this morning — that should clear after sunrise.
The ridge sticks around for the next 5 to 7 days. Expect 60s at the coast and 70s inland into the middle of next week, with no chance of rain. The offshore flow eases after Friday and turns back onshore.
Two coastal items to take seriously: a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for bayshore areas due to high astronomical tides continuing through Friday, Nov. 13, and hazardous beach conditions continue through Monday. Long-period swell will bring breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet at exposed beaches, with a higher risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Stay off jetties, piers, and rocks, stay out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean.
Looking further out, forecasters see growing confidence that a deeper trough could bring rain back in the 7 to 14 day window.
Bottom line: warm, dry, and calm here at home for days — just give the coast extra respect this weekend.
Weather Outlooks
Last checked Thu, Nov 5, 2026 · 8:20 AM PT · Last updated Wed, Nov 4, 2026 · 12:49 PM PT
NOAA Climate Prediction Center 6–10 day outlooks · More outlooks at CPC
Precipitation Outlook
Chance of above- or below-normal precipitation over the next 6–10 days.
Temperature Outlook
Chance of above- or below-normal temperatures over the next 6–10 days.
Russian River · Guerneville
Last checked Thu, Nov 5, 2026 · 8:20 AM PT · Last updated Thu, Nov 5, 2026 · 7:00 AM PT
Well below flood stage — flood stage at Guerneville is 32 ft.
Flood categories at Guerneville: Action 29 ft · Minor flood 32 ft · Moderate 35 ft · Major 40 ft
Sources: NOAA NWPS (observations) · NOAA California-Nevada River Forecast Center (forecast) · Gauge GUEC1
Critical NWS Alerts
Last checked Thu, Nov 5, 2026 · 8:20 AM PT · Last updated Thu, Nov 5, 2026 · 8:06 AM PT
Beach Hazards Statement issued November 5 at 2:05AM PST until November 9 at 10:00PM PST by NWS San Francisco CA
Thu, Nov 5 · 5:00 AM – Mon, Nov 9 · 10:00 PM PT
* WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to 1.6 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the Beach Hazards Statement, an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 12 to 16 ft expected.
* WHERE...Pacific Coast
* WHEN...For the Beach Hazards Statement, from 5 AM PST early this morning through Monday evening. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 6 AM Saturday to noon PST Tuesday.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
What: For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to 1.6 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the Beach Hazards Statement, an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 12 to 16 ft expected.
Where: Pacific Coast
When: For the Beach Hazards Statement, from 5 AM PST early this morning through Monday evening. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, from 6 AM Saturday to noon PST Tuesday.
Impacts: Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks.
Additional Details: At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be: 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr.
Source: weather.gov
Sources: National Weather Service alerts feed · Sonoma County
Other NWS Alerts
Last checked Thu, Nov 5, 2026 · 8:20 AM PT · Last updated Thu, Nov 5, 2026 · 8:06 AM PT
Coastal Flood Advisory issued November 5 at 2:05AM PST until November 13 at 4:00PM PST by NWS San Francisco CA
Thu, Nov 5 · 2:05 AM – Fri, Nov 13 · 4:00 PM PT
* WHAT...Up to 1.6 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
What: Up to 1.6 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
Where: Bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay and San Pablo Bay.
When: Until 4 PM PST Friday November 13.
Impacts: High tides will result in flooding of low-lying infrastructure, isolated road closures, and coastal erosion. Rising tides will bring water and waves farther up the beach than normal, restricting escape from beaches and coastal areas.
Additional Details: At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be: 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 8:35 AM Thursday 11/5, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 9:08 AM Friday 11/6, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
Source: weather.gov
Advisories, statements and other notices that don't meet the critical bar
Sources: National Weather Service alerts feed · Sonoma County
Roads & Hazards
Last checked Thu, Nov 5, 2026 · 8:20 AM PT · Last updated ---
West County & the Coastal Range · County reports and the Sonoma County road closure map
Seasonal: Vacation Beach Summer Crossing — closed for the season; returns next summer.
Fire Weather & PSPS
Thu, Nov 5, 2026 · 8:15 AM PT — Fire Weather Outlook
Risk is low for SoCo today: North Ops shows little to no risk for significant fires over the next 7 days, with no organized gusty-dry wind event — only a weak N-NE-E breeze through Friday, peaking north and east of Sonoma County. PG&E lists no PSPS activity at any tier for Sonoma, Mendocino, Lake, Napa, or Marin through November 11. ERC for SoCo is 21.39, near the 37th percentile and below the 60th percentile.
Power Outages
Last checked Thu, Nov 5, 2026 · 8:20 AM PT · Last updated Thu, Nov 5, 2026 · 8:20 AM PT
⚡ Kenwood — 1 customers out
Started Thu, Nov 5, 2026 · 7:45 AM PT · Estimated restore Thu, Nov 5, 2026 · 11:15 AM PT
Cause not yet known · Status: Active
Sources: Cal OES power outage incidents (from PG&E's outage map) · Refreshed every 15 minutes · The map shows all of Sonoma County for reference — notifications cover West County only
Lake Sonoma
Last checked Thu, Nov 5, 2026 · 8:20 AM PT · Last updated Thu, Nov 5, 2026 · 5:00 AM PT
Outflow from Warm Springs Dam, the main feeder to the lower Russian River
117 cfs
current outflow
Lake Sonoma storage — Sonoma Water supply graph · Last updated Mon, Nov 2, 2026 · 8:37 AM PT
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