SoCo MonitorConditions as of Tue, Nov 10, 2026 · 7:50 AM PT
Today's Weather
Tue, Nov 10, 2026 · 5:57 AM PT — Cody's morning report · Source: NWS Area Forecast Discussion
Morning, neighbors!
Warm and dry is the story through midweek here in the Lower Russian River and across Sonoma County. Highs today and Veterans Day Wednesday will run a little above normal — upper 60s at the coast, 70s to lower 80s inland — with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. Watch for some patchy fog and low clouds in the inland valleys this morning, otherwise skies stay mostly clear.
A couple coastal notes to keep in mind: high tides are bringing coastal flooding concerns through Friday, with a Coastal Flood Advisory in effect, and beach conditions stay hazardous through tonight. Please give the surf some respect — sneaker waves and rip currents are in play, and conditions get rougher again late week.
The pattern flips Friday. A cold front brings light to moderate rain, with the bulk expected late morning through afternoon Friday — something to plan around for the afternoon commute. Rain totals look like about 1 inch for the North Bay, with a third to a half inch elsewhere. A few showers linger Saturday, then another front Sunday brings more rain, with unsettled weather continuing into early next week and potentially the biggest waves of the season at the coast this weekend.
Bottom line: enjoy the warm, dry stretch today and Wednesday, get the outdoor stuff done by Thursday, and have the rain gear ready for Friday.
Weather Outlooks
Last checked Tue, Nov 10, 2026 · 7:50 AM PT · Last updated Mon, Nov 9, 2026 · 12:17 PM PT
NOAA Climate Prediction Center 6–10 day outlooks · More outlooks at CPC
Precipitation Outlook
Chance of above- or below-normal precipitation over the next 6–10 days.
Temperature Outlook
Chance of above- or below-normal temperatures over the next 6–10 days.
Russian River · Guerneville
Last checked Tue, Nov 10, 2026 · 7:50 AM PT · Last updated Tue, Nov 10, 2026 · 7:00 AM PT
Well below flood stage — flood stage at Guerneville is 32 ft.
Flood categories at Guerneville: Action 29 ft · Minor flood 32 ft · Moderate 35 ft · Major 40 ft
Sources: NOAA NWPS (observations) · NOAA California-Nevada River Forecast Center (forecast) · Gauge GUEC1
Austin Creek · Cazadero
Last checked Tue, Nov 10, 2026 · 7:50 AM PT · Last updated Tue, Nov 10, 2026 · 7:00 AM PT
Well below flood stage — flood stage on Austin Creek is 21 ft.
Flood categories at Cazadero: Action 18.5 ft · Minor flood 21 ft · Moderate 27 ft · Major 32 ft
Sources: NOAA NWPS · USGS · Gauge AUSC1 (USGS 11467200) · Observation only — no forecast is issued for this creek
Critical NWS Alerts
Last checked Tue, Nov 10, 2026 · 7:50 AM PT · Last updated Mon, Nov 9, 2026 · 10:03 PM PT
Sources: National Weather Service alerts feed · Sonoma County
Other NWS Alerts
Last checked Tue, Nov 10, 2026 · 7:50 AM PT · Last updated Tue, Nov 10, 2026 · 12:23 AM PT
Coastal Flood Advisory issued November 10 at 12:19AM PST until November 13 at 4:00PM PST by NWS San Francisco CA
Tue, Nov 10 · 12:19 AM – Fri, Nov 13 · 4:00 PM PT
* WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to 1.6 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
What: For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to 1.6 ft of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
Where: San Francisco including bayshore locations along the San Francisco Bay and San Pablo Bay.
When: For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 4 PM PST Friday.
Impacts: High tides will result in flooding of low-lying infrastructure, isolated road closures, and coastal erosion. Rising tides will bring water and waves farther up the beach than normal, restricting escape from beaches and coastal areas. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks.
Additional Details: At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be: 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.1 ft above normal (6.9 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.4 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively.
If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property.
Source: weather.gov
Advisories, statements and other notices that don't meet the critical bar
Sources: National Weather Service alerts feed · Sonoma County
Roads & Hazards
Last checked Tue, Nov 10, 2026 · 7:50 AM PT · Last updated ---
West County & the Coastal Range · County reports and the Sonoma County road closure map
Seasonal: Vacation Beach Summer Crossing — closed for the season; returns next summer.
Fire Weather & PSPS
Mon, Nov 9, 2026 · 7:59 AM PT — Fire Weather Outlook
North Ops calls it little to no risk for significant fire in SoCo, with no organized gusty, dry wind event in the outlook. ERC sits at 27.4, below the 60th percentile with the forecast trending down. No offshore wind event is detected over the next seven days, and PG&E lists no PSPS activity at any tier for Sonoma, Mendocino, Lake, Napa, or Marin through Nov 15. A wetter pattern is expected to build late this week.
Power Outages
Last checked Tue, Nov 10, 2026 · 7:50 AM PT · Last updated Tue, Nov 10, 2026 · 7:50 AM PT
⚡ Graton — 2,105 customers out
Started Tue, Nov 10, 2026 · 7:23 AM PT · Estimated restore no estimate yet
Crew patrolling to find the cause · Status: Active
⚡ Graton — 1 customers out
Started Tue, Nov 10, 2026 · 7:26 AM PT · Estimated restore no estimate yet
Cause not yet known · Status: Active
⚡ Forestville — 1 customers out
Started Tue, Nov 10, 2026 · 7:27 AM PT · Estimated restore no estimate yet
Cause not yet known · Status: Active
⚡ Graton — 1 customers out
Started Tue, Nov 10, 2026 · 7:28 AM PT · Estimated restore no estimate yet
Cause not yet known · Status: Active
Sources: Cal OES power outage incidents (from PG&E's outage map) · Refreshed every 15 minutes · The map shows all of Sonoma County for reference — notifications cover West County only
Lake Sonoma
Last checked Tue, Nov 10, 2026 · 7:50 AM PT · Last updated Mon, Nov 9, 2026 · 5:00 AM PT
Outflow from Warm Springs Dam, the main feeder to the lower Russian River
117 cfs
current outflow
Lake Sonoma storage — Sonoma Water supply graph · Last updated Mon, Nov 9, 2026 · 10:05 AM PT
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